Essonne — 8ème circonscription
Legislative constituency · Essonne
Forecast of July 11, 2026
Our forecast gives the sovereignists a 69% chance of winning, with an average lead of 0.6 points.
Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 59%.
Compared with the average
| Left (NFP) | Sovereignists | LR and allies | RN and allies | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Essonne — 8ème circonscription | 32.2% | 31.6% | 27.4% | 2.9% |
| Provincial averageEssonne | 37.4%−5.2 | 3.2%+28.4 | 7.3%+20.1 | 28.2%−25.3 |
| National averageFrance | 29.0%+3.2 | 0.3%+31.3 | 12.2%+15.2 | 36.0%−33.1 |
Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
Bérenger CERNON · Left (NFP)
Previous election (2024)
The united left won by 0.0 points.
Our current projection: the sovereignists ahead by 0.6 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bérenger CERNON Elected | Left (NFP) | 16,986 | 34.4 |
| Nicolas DUPONT-AIGNAN | Sovereignists | 16,288 | 33.0 |
| François DUROVRAY | LR and allies | 13,532 | 27.4 |
| Amina BOUATLAOUI | Greens | 1,683 | 3.4 |
| Chantal DUBOULAY | Far left | 432 | 0.9 |
| Lolita DUQUENOY | Others | 283 | 0.6 |
| Jean-Baptiste TAOFIFENUA | Centre (Ensemble) | 218 | 0.4 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Val-de-Marne — 3ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Essonne — 9ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Val-de-Marne — 2ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Essonne — 7ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Val-de-Marne — 1ère circonscription LR and allies, toss-up
- Val-de-Marne — 9ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Forecast updated