Vendée — 3ème circonscription
Legislative constituency · Vendée
Forecast of July 11, 2026
Our forecast gives the RN and its allies a 81% chance of winning, with an average lead of 10.6 points.
Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 38%.
Compared with the average
| RN and allies | Centre (Ensemble) | Left (NFP) | LR and allies | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vendée — 3ème circonscription | 40.4% | 29.8% | 15.6% | 9.9% |
| Provincial averageVendée | 36.2%+4.2 | 28.6%+1.2 | 19.5%−3.9 | 11.7%−1.8 |
| National averageFrance | 36.0%+4.4 | 17.0%+12.8 | 29.0%−13.4 | 12.2%−2.3 |
Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
Stéphane BUCHOU · Centre (Ensemble)
Previous election (2024)
The centrist bloc won by 0.0 points.
Our current projection: the RN and its allies ahead by 10.6 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pascal DUBIN | RN and allies | 33,545 | 35.6 |
| Stéphane BUCHOU Elected | Centre (Ensemble) | 32,889 | 34.9 |
| Pascale MARCHAND | Left (NFP) | 15,466 | 16.4 |
| Noël FAUCHER | LR and allies | 8,221 | 8.7 |
| Eric MAUVOISIN-DELAVAUD | RN and allies | 1,895 | 2.0 |
| Armelle Marie Geneviève GUÉNOLÉ | Sovereignists | 1,428 | 1.5 |
| Philippe FESTIEN | Far left | 817 | 0.9 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Loire-Atlantique — 9ème circonscription LR and allies, competitive
- Vendée — 1ère circonscription Centre (Ensemble), safe seat
- Loire-Atlantique — 4ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Loire-Atlantique — 3ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Vendée — 2ème circonscription Centre (Ensemble), competitive
- Loire-Atlantique — 1ère circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Forecast updated