Vendée — 2ème circonscription
Legislative constituency · Vendée
Forecast of July 11, 2026
Our forecast gives the centrist bloc a 82% chance of winning, with an average lead of 5.8 points.
Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 37%.
Compared with the average
| RN and allies | Centre (Ensemble) | Left (NFP) | Others | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vendée — 2ème circonscription | 39.4% | 33.6% | 22.5% | 2.0% |
| Provincial averageVendée | 36.2%+3.1 | 28.6%+5.0 | 19.5%+3.0 | 2.0% |
| National averageFrance | 36.0%+3.4 | 17.0%+16.6 | 29.0%−6.5 | 3.9%−1.9 |
Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
Béatrice BELLAMY · Centre (Ensemble)
Previous election (2024)
The centrist bloc won by 0.0 points.
Our current projection: the centrist bloc ahead by 5.8 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Béatrice BELLAMY Elected | Centre (Ensemble) | 30,262 | 38.7 |
| Marie-Christine EBRAN | RN and allies | 28,538 | 36.5 |
| Nicolas HELARY | Left (NFP) | 18,234 | 23.3 |
| Sophie BARILLOT | Far left | 1,081 | 1.4 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Vendée — 1ère circonscription Centre (Ensemble), safe seat
- Charente-Maritime — 1ère circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Vendée — 4ème circonscription LR and allies, safe seat
- Vendée — 5ème circonscription RN and allies, toss-up
- Loire-Atlantique — 10ème circonscription Left (NFP), toss-up
- Vendée — 3ème circonscription RN and allies, competitive
- Forecast updated