Vendée — 1ère circonscription
Legislative constituency · Vendée
Forecast of July 11, 2026
Our forecast gives the centrist bloc a 97% chance of winning, with an average lead of 1.4 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 6%.
Compared with the average
| Centre (Ensemble) | RN and allies | Left (NFP) | Others | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vendée — 1ère circonscription | 36.4% | 35.0% | 22.5% | 2.0% |
| Provincial averageVendée | 28.6%+7.8 | 36.2%−1.2 | 19.5%+3.0 | 2.0% |
| National averageFrance | 17.0%+19.4 | 36.0%−1.0 | 29.0%−6.6 | 3.9%−1.9 |
Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
Philippe LATOMBE · Centre (Ensemble)
Previous election (2024)
The centrist bloc won by 0.0 points.
Our current projection: the centrist bloc ahead by 1.4 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Simon-Pierre PAULIN | RN and allies | 26,105 | 32.2 |
| Philippe LATOMBE Elected | Centre (Ensemble) | 23,136 | 28.5 |
| Lucie ETONNO | Left (NFP) | 18,929 | 23.3 |
| Laurent CAILLAUD | Centre (Ensemble) | 10,607 | 13.1 |
| Jean-Marc BARIAL | Sovereignists | 1,436 | 1.8 |
| Gilles ROBIN | Far left | 942 | 1.2 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Vendée — 2ème circonscription Centre (Ensemble), competitive
- Loire-Atlantique — 10ème circonscription Left (NFP), toss-up
- Loire-Atlantique — 4ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Vendée — 3ème circonscription RN and allies, competitive
- Loire-Atlantique — 9ème circonscription LR and allies, competitive
- Loire-Atlantique — 2ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Forecast updated