Loire-Atlantique — 4ème circonscription
Legislative constituency · Loire-Atlantique
Forecast of July 11, 2026
Our forecast gives the united left a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 23.0 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Left (NFP) | RN and allies | Centre (Ensemble) | LR and allies | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loire-Atlantique — 4ème circonscription | 46.1% | 23.1% | 17.7% | 9.6% |
| Provincial averageLoire-Atlantique | 37.4%+8.7 | 27.5%−4.3 | 18.6%−0.9 | 11.9%−2.4 |
| National averageFrance | 29.0%+17.1 | 36.0%−12.9 | 17.0%+0.7 | 12.2%−2.6 |
Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
Julie LAERNOES · Left (NFP)
Previous election (2024)
The united left won by 0.0 points.
Our current projection: the united left ahead by 23.0 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Julie LAERNOES Elected | Left (NFP) | 30,619 | 46.8 |
| Aude AMADOU | Centre (Ensemble) | 14,815 | 22.7 |
| Gaëlle PINEAU | RN and allies | 13,116 | 20.1 |
| Astrid LUSSON | LR and allies | 5,450 | 8.3 |
| Stéphane PELLEGRINI | Far left | 788 | 1.2 |
| François OLLÉON | Greens | 593 | 0.9 |
| Mattis GAUVIN | Far left | 0 | 0.0 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Loire-Atlantique — 2ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Loire-Atlantique — 1ère circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Loire-Atlantique — 3ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Loire-Atlantique — 9ème circonscription LR and allies, competitive
- Loire-Atlantique — 5ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Loire-Atlantique — 10ème circonscription Left (NFP), toss-up
- Forecast updated