Loire-Atlantique — 5ème circonscription
Legislative constituency · Loire-Atlantique
Forecast of July 11, 2026
Our forecast gives the united left a 94% chance of winning, with an average lead of 5.7 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 12%.
Compared with the average
| Left (NFP) | Centre (Ensemble) | RN and allies | Others | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loire-Atlantique — 5ème circonscription | 36.8% | 31.1% | 27.6% | 2.0% |
| Provincial averageLoire-Atlantique | 37.4%−0.6 | 18.6%+12.4 | 27.5%+0.2 | 2.4%−0.4 |
| National averageFrance | 29.0%+7.8 | 17.0%+14.0 | 36.0%−8.4 | 3.9%−1.9 |
Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
Fabrice ROUSSEL · Left (NFP)
Previous election (2024)
The united left won by 0.0 points.
Our current projection: the united left ahead by 5.7 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fabrice ROUSSEL Elected | Left (NFP) | 34,673 | 37.7 |
| Sarah EL HAÏRY | Centre (Ensemble) | 33,241 | 36.2 |
| Bruno COMBY | RN and allies | 22,722 | 24.7 |
| Emmanuelle CLOPEAU | Far left | 1,261 | 1.4 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Loire-Atlantique — 2ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Loire-Atlantique — 1ère circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Loire-Atlantique — 6ème circonscription RN and allies, toss-up
- Loire-Atlantique — 4ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Loire-Atlantique — 10ème circonscription Left (NFP), toss-up
- Loire-Atlantique — 3ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Forecast updated