Loire-Atlantique — 1ère circonscription
Legislative constituency · Loire-Atlantique
Forecast of July 11, 2026
Our forecast gives the united left a 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 10.0 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 1%.
Compared with the average
| Left (NFP) | Centre (Ensemble) | RN and allies | Others | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loire-Atlantique — 1ère circonscription | 42.2% | 32.3% | 21.1% | 2.0% |
| Provincial averageLoire-Atlantique | 37.4%+4.8 | 18.6%+13.6 | 27.5%−6.4 | 2.4%−0.4 |
| National averageFrance | 29.0%+13.2 | 17.0%+15.2 | 36.0%−14.9 | 3.9%−1.9 |
Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
Karim BENBRAHIM · Left (NFP)
Previous election (2024)
The united left won by 0.0 points.
Our current projection: the united left ahead by 10.0 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Karim BENBRAHIM Elected | Left (NFP) | 23,671 | 43.2 |
| Mounir BELHAMITI | Centre (Ensemble) | 20,488 | 37.4 |
| Bryan PECQUEUR | RN and allies | 9,937 | 18.1 |
| Hélène DEFRANCE | Far left | 521 | 1.0 |
| Betty COLLOBER | Far left | 181 | 0.3 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Loire-Atlantique — 2ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Loire-Atlantique — 4ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Loire-Atlantique — 3ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Loire-Atlantique — 5ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Loire-Atlantique — 9ème circonscription LR and allies, competitive
- Loire-Atlantique — 6ème circonscription RN and allies, toss-up
- Forecast updated