Deux-Sèvres — 1ère circonscription
Legislative constituency · Deux-Sèvres
Forecast of July 11, 2026
Our forecast gives the centrist bloc a 77% chance of winning, with an average lead of 3.2 points.
Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 45%.
Compared with the average
| Centre (Ensemble) | Left (NFP) | RN and allies | Others | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deux-Sèvres — 1ère circonscription | 35.1% | 31.9% | 28.7% | 2.0% |
| Provincial averageDeux-Sèvres | 24.0%+11.1 | 16.7%+15.2 | 34.9%−6.2 | 2.0% |
| National averageFrance | 17.0%+18.1 | 29.0%+2.8 | 36.0%−7.2 | 3.9%−1.9 |
Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
Bastien MARCHIVE · Centre (Ensemble)
Previous election (2024)
The centrist bloc won by 0.0 points.
Our current projection: the centrist bloc ahead by 3.2 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bastien MARCHIVE Elected | Centre (Ensemble) | 25,247 | 40.2 |
| Nathalie LANZI | Left (NFP) | 20,571 | 32.8 |
| Dorothée CHAMPEAU | RN and allies | 15,447 | 24.6 |
| Virginie JULIARD | RN and allies | 773 | 1.2 |
| Danielle VAUZELLE | Far left | 698 | 1.1 |
| Marc René GAILLARD | Left (NFP) | 0 | 0.0 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Deux-Sèvres — 2ème circonscription Greens, safe seat
- Deux-Sèvres — 3ème circonscription RN and allies, toss-up
- Vendée — 5ème circonscription RN and allies, toss-up
- Charente-Maritime — 3ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Charente-Maritime — 2ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Vienne — 2ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Forecast updated