Seine-et-Marne — 9ème circonscription
Legislative constituency · Seine-et-Marne
Forecast of July 11, 2026
Our forecast gives the RN and its allies a 94% chance of winning, with an average lead of 10.7 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 11%.
Compared with the average
| RN and allies | Left (NFP) | Centre (Ensemble) | LR and allies | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seine-et-Marne — 9ème circonscription | 39.4% | 28.8% | 16.5% | 8.1% |
| Provincial averageSeine-et-Marne | 35.7%+3.7 | 31.1%−2.3 | 14.2%+2.4 | 14.6%−6.5 |
| National averageFrance | 36.0%+3.5 | 29.0%−0.3 | 17.0%−0.5 | 12.2%−4.1 |
Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
Céline THIÉBAULT-MARTINEZ · Left (NFP)
Previous election (2024)
The united left won by 0.0 points.
Our current projection: the RN and its allies ahead by 10.7 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Morgann VANACKER | RN and allies | 19,781 | 35.5 |
| Céline THIÉBAULT-MARTINEZ Elected | Left (NFP) | 16,521 | 29.7 |
| Michèle PEYRON | Centre (Ensemble) | 12,023 | 21.6 |
| Franck DENION | LR and allies | 3,834 | 6.9 |
| Marie-Pierre CHEVALLIER | Others | 1,745 | 3.1 |
| Kamal VALCIN | Others | 775 | 1.4 |
| Bruno-Charles DELALANDRE | RN and allies | 622 | 1.1 |
| Florence WOODS | Far left | 426 | 0.8 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Seine-et-Marne — 8ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Seine-et-Marne — 10ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Val-de-Marne — 4ème circonscription Left (NFP), competitive
- Seine-et-Marne — 11ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Val-de-Marne — 3ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Seine-Saint-Denis — 3ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Forecast updated