Seine-et-Marne — 8ème circonscription
Legislative constituency · Seine-et-Marne
Forecast of July 11, 2026
Our forecast gives the united left a 91% chance of winning, with an average lead of 3.1 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 15%.
Compared with the average
| Left (NFP) | RN and allies | Centre (Ensemble) | Others | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seine-et-Marne — 8ème circonscription | 35.4% | 32.2% | 27.9% | 2.0% |
| Provincial averageSeine-et-Marne | 31.1%+4.3 | 35.7%−3.5 | 14.2%+13.7 | 2.5%−0.5 |
| National averageFrance | 29.0%+6.3 | 36.0%−3.8 | 17.0%+10.9 | 3.9%−1.9 |
Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
Arnaud BONNET · Left (NFP)
Previous election (2024)
The united left won by 0.0 points.
Our current projection: the united left ahead by 3.1 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arnaud BONNET Elected | Left (NFP) | 22,663 | 36.3 |
| Hadrien GHOMI | Centre (Ensemble) | 20,622 | 33.0 |
| Manon MOURGERES | RN and allies | 17,465 | 28.0 |
| Jean-Marc MOSKOWICZ | RN and allies | 869 | 1.4 |
| Frédéric RENAULT | Far left | 822 | 1.3 |
| Henriette SAUVAGE | Sovereignists | 1 | 0.0 |
| Bernard DUCHAUSSOY | Greens | 0 | 0.0 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Seine-et-Marne — 10ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Seine-et-Marne — 9ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Seine-et-Marne — 7ème circonscription RN and allies, competitive
- Val-de-Marne — 4ème circonscription Left (NFP), competitive
- Seine-Saint-Denis — 3ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Seine-Saint-Denis — 12ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Forecast updated