Seine-et-Marne — 7ème circonscription
Legislative constituency · Seine-et-Marne
Forecast of July 11, 2026
Our forecast gives the RN and its allies a 84% chance of winning, with an average lead of 7.8 points.
Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 31%.
Compared with the average
| RN and allies | Left (NFP) | Centre (Ensemble) | Others | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seine-et-Marne — 7ème circonscription | 39.7% | 31.9% | 22.9% | 2.0% |
| Provincial averageSeine-et-Marne | 35.7%+4.0 | 31.1%+0.9 | 14.2%+8.8 | 2.5%−0.5 |
| National averageFrance | 36.0%+3.7 | 29.0%+2.9 | 17.0%+5.9 | 3.9%−1.9 |
Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
Ersilia SOUDAIS · Left (NFP)
Previous election (2024)
The united left won by 0.0 points.
Our current projection: the RN and its allies ahead by 7.8 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Agnès LAFFITE | RN and allies | 20,179 | 35.7 |
| Ersilia SOUDAIS Elected | Left (NFP) | 18,557 | 32.9 |
| Christian ROBACHE | Centre (Ensemble) | 10,611 | 18.8 |
| Rodrigue KOKOUENDO | Centre (Ensemble) | 3,345 | 5.9 |
| Naïma MOGHIR | Centre (Ensemble) | 1,872 | 3.3 |
| Mathilde YU-YUENG | Sovereignists | 678 | 1.2 |
| Yannick CARLINO | RN and allies | 657 | 1.2 |
| Gabrielle FRIJA | Far left | 587 | 1.0 |
| Maria LOURO | LR and allies | 3 | 0.0 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Seine-et-Marne — 10ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Seine-et-Marne — 8ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Seine-Saint-Denis — 12ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Seine-Saint-Denis — 11ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Seine-Saint-Denis — 3ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Seine-Saint-Denis — 10ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Forecast updated