Seine-et-Marne — 5ème circonscription
Legislative constituency · Seine-et-Marne
Forecast of July 11, 2026
Our forecast gives the RN and its allies a 96% chance of winning, with an average lead of 18.2 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 7%.
Compared with the average
| RN and allies | Centre (Ensemble) | Left (NFP) | Others | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seine-et-Marne — 5ème circonscription | 44.6% | 26.3% | 23.7% | 2.5% |
| Provincial averageSeine-et-Marne | 35.7%+8.8 | 14.2%+12.2 | 31.1%−7.4 | 2.5% |
| National averageFrance | 36.0%+8.6 | 17.0%+9.3 | 29.0%−5.4 | 3.9%−1.4 |
Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
Franck RIESTER · Centre (Ensemble)
Previous election (2024)
The centrist bloc won by 0.0 points.
Our current projection: the RN and its allies ahead by 18.2 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Philippe FONTANA | RN and allies | 23,820 | 41.8 |
| Franck RIESTER Elected | Centre (Ensemble) | 17,923 | 31.4 |
| Laurie CAENBERGS | Left (NFP) | 13,985 | 24.5 |
| Pascal QUENOT | Far left | 1,011 | 1.8 |
| Rudolf LARREGAIN-FELLER | Others | 288 | 0.5 |
| Michèle DURAND | Sovereignists | 2 | 0.0 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Seine-et-Marne — 6ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Seine-et-Marne — 4ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Seine-et-Marne — 8ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Seine-et-Marne — 9ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Seine-et-Marne — 7ème circonscription RN and allies, competitive
- Seine-et-Marne — 3ème circonscription LR and allies, toss-up
- Forecast updated