Seine-et-Marne — 4ème circonscription
Legislative constituency · Seine-et-Marne
Forecast of July 11, 2026
Our forecast gives the RN and its allies a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 21.8 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| RN and allies | LR and allies | Left (NFP) | Others | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seine-et-Marne — 4ème circonscription | 49.5% | 27.7% | 19.1% | 1.9% |
| Provincial averageSeine-et-Marne | 35.7%+13.8 | 14.6%+13.1 | 31.1%−12.0 | 2.5%−0.6 |
| National averageFrance | 36.0%+13.6 | 12.2%+15.5 | 29.0%−9.9 | 3.9%−2.0 |
Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
Julien LIMONGI · RN and allies
Previous election (2024)
The RN and its allies won by 0.0 points.
Our current projection: the RN and its allies ahead by 21.8 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Julien LIMONGI Elected | RN and allies | 27,317 | 47.6 |
| Isabelle PERIGAULT | LR and allies | 16,060 | 28.0 |
| Mathieu GARNIER | Left (NFP) | 11,986 | 20.9 |
| Jean-Yves GAUDEY | Far left | 1,070 | 1.9 |
| Nicolas FAUVEAU | RN and allies | 907 | 1.6 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Seine-et-Marne — 5ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Seine-et-Marne — 3ème circonscription LR and allies, toss-up
- Seine-et-Marne — 6ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Seine-et-Marne — 9ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Seine-et-Marne — 8ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Yonne — 3ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Forecast updated