Seine-et-Marne — 3ème circonscription
Legislative constituency · Seine-et-Marne
Forecast of July 11, 2026
Our forecast gives the LR right a 67% chance of winning, with an average lead of 7.8 points.
Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 66%.
Compared with the average
| RN and allies | LR and allies | Left (NFP) | Others | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seine-et-Marne — 3ème circonscription | 39.0% | 31.2% | 26.2% | 1.9% |
| Provincial averageSeine-et-Marne | 35.7%+3.3 | 14.6%+16.6 | 31.1%−4.8 | 2.5%−0.6 |
| National averageFrance | 36.0%+3.0 | 12.2%+19.0 | 29.0%−2.8 | 3.9%−2.0 |
Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
Jean-Louis THIERIOT · LR and allies
Previous election (2024)
The LR right won by 0.0 points.
Our current projection: the LR right ahead by 7.8 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Davy BRUN | RN and allies | 19,153 | 38.1 |
| Jean-Louis THIERIOT Elected | LR and allies | 15,914 | 31.7 |
| Laura VALLÉE-HANS | Left (NFP) | 14,267 | 28.4 |
| Catherine VAN CAUTEREN | Far left | 896 | 1.8 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Seine-et-Marne — 2ème circonscription RN and allies, competitive
- Seine-et-Marne — 1ère circonscription RN and allies, toss-up
- Seine-et-Marne — 9ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Seine-et-Marne — 11ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Seine-et-Marne — 4ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Seine-et-Marne — 8ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Forecast updated