Seine-et-Marne — 2ème circonscription
Legislative constituency · Seine-et-Marne
Forecast of July 11, 2026
Our forecast gives the RN and its allies a 82% chance of winning, with an average lead of 11.2 points.
Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 36%.
Compared with the average
| RN and allies | Centre (Ensemble) | Left (NFP) | Greens | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seine-et-Marne — 2ème circonscription | 40.0% | 28.8% | 23.0% | 3.3% |
| Provincial averageSeine-et-Marne | 35.7%+4.2 | 14.2%+14.6 | 31.1%−8.1 | 0.3%+3.0 |
| National averageFrance | 36.0%+4.0 | 17.0%+11.8 | 29.0%−6.1 | 0.4%+2.9 |
Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
Frédéric VALLETOUX · Centre (Ensemble)
Previous election (2024)
The centrist bloc won by 0.0 points.
Our current projection: the RN and its allies ahead by 11.2 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ivanka DIMITROVA | RN and allies | 18,887 | 35.1 |
| Frédéric VALLETOUX Elected | Centre (Ensemble) | 18,171 | 33.7 |
| Nour BENAÏSSA WATBOT | Left (NFP) | 12,765 | 23.7 |
| Loïc ROUSSELLE | Greens | 2,102 | 3.9 |
| Guillaume CAZAURAN | RN and allies | 991 | 1.8 |
| Élodie BROCH | Far left | 419 | 0.8 |
| Stephanie FAURY | Far left | 377 | 0.7 |
| Valérian LAPKOFF | Others | 152 | 0.3 |
| Sophie BALASTRE | Sovereignists | 8 | 0.0 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Seine-et-Marne — 1ère circonscription RN and allies, toss-up
- Seine-et-Marne — 3ème circonscription LR and allies, toss-up
- Seine-et-Marne — 11ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Loiret — 4ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Seine-et-Marne — 9ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Essonne — 9ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Forecast updated