Seine-et-Marne — 1ère circonscription
Legislative constituency · Seine-et-Marne
Forecast of July 11, 2026
Our forecast gives the RN and its allies a 58% chance of winning, with an average lead of 4.7 points.
Toss-up. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 83%.
Compared with the average
| RN and allies | Left (NFP) | Centre (Ensemble) | Others | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seine-et-Marne — 1ère circonscription | 37.6% | 32.9% | 24.0% | 2.0% |
| Provincial averageSeine-et-Marne | 35.7%+1.8 | 31.1%+1.9 | 14.2%+9.8 | 2.5%−0.5 |
| National averageFrance | 36.0%+1.6 | 29.0%+3.9 | 17.0%+7.0 | 3.9%−1.9 |
Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
Arnaud SAINT-MARTIN · Left (NFP)
Previous election (2024)
The united left won by 0.0 points.
Our current projection: the RN and its allies ahead by 4.7 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arnaud SAINT-MARTIN Elected | Left (NFP) | 14,701 | 33.3 |
| Théo MICHEL | RN and allies | 14,542 | 33.0 |
| Aude LUQUET | Centre (Ensemble) | 12,816 | 29.0 |
| Brigitte LAPEYRONIE | RN and allies | 794 | 1.8 |
| Jean-Louis GUERRIER | Far left | 742 | 1.7 |
| Henri Komivi DJOLEGBEHOU | LR and allies | 298 | 0.7 |
| Hicham AICHI | Left (NFP) | 234 | 0.5 |
| Victoria MEIMOUNI | Sovereignists | 3 | 0.0 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Seine-et-Marne — 11ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Essonne — 9ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Essonne — 1ère circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Seine-et-Marne — 9ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Seine-et-Marne — 2ème circonscription RN and allies, competitive
- Essonne — 8ème circonscription Sovereignists, toss-up
- Forecast updated