Loiret — 4ème circonscription
Legislative constituency · Loiret
Forecast of July 11, 2026
Our forecast gives the RN and its allies a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 33.3 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| RN and allies | Left (NFP) | LR and allies | Centre (Ensemble) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loiret — 4ème circonscription | 53.5% | 20.3% | 13.0% | 10.0% |
| Provincial averageLoiret | 42.3%+11.2 | 24.5%−4.2 | 11.9%+1.1 | 17.3%−7.3 |
| National averageFrance | 36.0%+17.6 | 29.0%−8.7 | 12.2%+0.8 | 17.0%−7.0 |
Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
Thomas MÉNAGÉ · RN and allies
Previous election (2024)
The RN and its allies won by 0.0 points.
Our current projection: the RN and its allies ahead by 33.3 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas MÉNAGÉ Elected | RN and allies | 23,231 | 49.7 |
| Bruno NOTTIN | Left (NFP) | 9,889 | 21.1 |
| Mélusine HARLÉ | Centre (Ensemble) | 7,029 | 15.0 |
| Ariel LÉVY | LR and allies | 5,537 | 11.8 |
| Dominique CLERGUE | Far left | 551 | 1.2 |
| Georges LOUBERT | RN and allies | 535 | 1.1 |
| Françoise ROCHE | Others | 13 | 0.0 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Seine-et-Marne — 2ème circonscription RN and allies, competitive
- Loiret — 3ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Loiret — 6ème circonscription RN and allies, competitive
- Seine-et-Marne — 3ème circonscription LR and allies, toss-up
- Yonne — 1ère circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Loiret — 5ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Forecast updated