Seine-Maritime — 10ème circonscription
Legislative constituency · Seine-Maritime
Forecast of July 11, 2026
Our forecast gives the RN and its allies a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 28.8 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| RN and allies | Centre (Ensemble) | Left (NFP) | LR and allies | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seine-Maritime — 10ème circonscription | 49.2% | 20.5% | 16.6% | 9.2% |
| Provincial averageSeine-Maritime | 39.3%+10.0 | 18.5%+2.0 | 31.7%−15.1 | 6.6%+2.6 |
| National averageFrance | 36.0%+13.3 | 17.0%+3.5 | 29.0%−12.4 | 12.2%−3.0 |
Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
Robert LE BOURGEOIS · RN and allies
Previous election (2024)
The RN and its allies won by 0.0 points.
Our current projection: the RN and its allies ahead by 28.8 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Robert LE BOURGEOIS Elected | RN and allies | 34,431 | 45.3 |
| Xavier BATUT | Centre (Ensemble) | 19,420 | 25.6 |
| Handy BARRÉ | Left (NFP) | 13,254 | 17.4 |
| Jean Nicolas ROUSSEAU | LR and allies | 6,089 | 8.0 |
| Alain RIVIÈRE | Far left | 1,033 | 1.4 |
| Nicolas DUMAS | RN and allies | 901 | 1.2 |
| Rémy LECUYER | Sovereignists | 890 | 1.2 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Seine-Maritime — 5ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Seine-Maritime — 1ère circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Seine-Maritime — 3ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Seine-Maritime — 4ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Seine-Maritime — 6ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Eure — 4ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Forecast updated