Seine-Maritime — 5ème circonscription
Legislative constituency · Seine-Maritime
Forecast of July 11, 2026
Our forecast gives the RN and its allies a 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 13.1 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 2%.
Compared with the average
| RN and allies | Left (NFP) | Centre (Ensemble) | Others | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seine-Maritime — 5ème circonscription | 45.6% | 32.4% | 17.3% | 2.0% |
| Provincial averageSeine-Maritime | 39.3%+6.3 | 31.7%+0.7 | 18.5%−1.2 | 2.0% |
| National averageFrance | 36.0%+9.6 | 29.0%+3.4 | 17.0%+0.3 | 3.9%−1.9 |
Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
Gérard LESEUL · Left (NFP)
Previous election (2024)
The united left won by 0.0 points.
Our current projection: the RN and its allies ahead by 13.1 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jean-Cyril MONTIER | RN and allies | 26,406 | 41.4 |
| Gérard LESEUL Elected | Left (NFP) | 21,281 | 33.4 |
| Jean DELALANDRE | Centre (Ensemble) | 14,259 | 22.4 |
| Simon SULKOWSKI | Far left | 963 | 1.5 |
| Jean-Marc BLED | RN and allies | 880 | 1.4 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Seine-Maritime — 4ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Seine-Maritime — 10ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Seine-Maritime — 1ère circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Seine-Maritime — 3ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Eure — 3ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Eure — 4ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Forecast updated