Eure — 4ème circonscription
Legislative constituency · Eure
Forecast of July 11, 2026
Our forecast gives the RN and its allies a 98% chance of winning, with an average lead of 12.0 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 5%.
Compared with the average
| RN and allies | Left (NFP) | Centre (Ensemble) | Others | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eure — 4ème circonscription | 45.3% | 33.3% | 17.1% | 2.0% |
| Provincial averageEure | 48.9%−3.6 | 22.0%+11.3 | 20.0%−2.9 | 2.2%−0.2 |
| National averageFrance | 36.0%+9.3 | 29.0%+4.3 | 17.0% | 3.9%−1.9 |
Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
Philippe BRUN · Left (NFP)
Previous election (2024)
The united left won by 0.0 points.
Our current projection: the RN and its allies ahead by 12.0 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Patrice PAUPER | RN and allies | 25,691 | 41.6 |
| Philippe BRUN Elected | Left (NFP) | 21,144 | 34.3 |
| Anne TERLEZ | Centre (Ensemble) | 10,767 | 17.5 |
| Olivier ISTIN | Centre (Ensemble) | 2,868 | 4.7 |
| Christophe SOLAL | Far left | 693 | 1.1 |
| Stacy BLONDEL | RN and allies | 536 | 0.9 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Seine-Maritime — 3ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Seine-Maritime — 4ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Seine-Maritime — 1ère circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Eure — 2ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Eure — 1ère circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Seine-Maritime — 5ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Forecast updated