Seine-Maritime — 1ère circonscription
Legislative constituency · Seine-Maritime
Forecast of July 11, 2026
Our forecast gives the united left a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 20.8 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Left (NFP) | RN and allies | Centre (Ensemble) | LR and allies | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seine-Maritime — 1ère circonscription | 43.7% | 23.0% | 22.8% | 7.0% |
| Provincial averageSeine-Maritime | 31.7%+12.0 | 39.3%−16.3 | 18.5%+4.3 | 6.6%+0.4 |
| National averageFrance | 29.0%+14.7 | 36.0%−13.0 | 17.0%+5.8 | 12.2%−5.2 |
Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
Florence HEROUIN-LÉAUTEY · Left (NFP)
Previous election (2024)
The united left won by 0.0 points.
Our current projection: the united left ahead by 20.8 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Florence HEROUIN-LÉAUTEY Elected | Left (NFP) | 20,040 | 44.4 |
| Damien ADAM | Centre (Ensemble) | 12,456 | 27.6 |
| Grégoire HOUDAN | RN and allies | 8,567 | 19.0 |
| Patrick CHABERT | LR and allies | 2,606 | 5.8 |
| Christian SAVEY | RN and allies | 465 | 1.0 |
| Valérie FOISSEY | Far left | 454 | 1.0 |
| Marie-Hélène DUVERGER | Far left | 271 | 0.6 |
| Jody HORCHOLLE | Centre (Ensemble) | 122 | 0.3 |
| Richard VACQUER | Left (NFP) | 111 | 0.3 |
| Mikhail STACHKOV | Others | 3 | 0.0 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Seine-Maritime — 3ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Seine-Maritime — 4ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Eure — 4ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Seine-Maritime — 10ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Seine-Maritime — 5ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Seine-Maritime — 2ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Forecast updated