Seine-Maritime — 4ème circonscription
Legislative constituency · Seine-Maritime
Forecast of July 11, 2026
Our forecast gives the RN and its allies a 97% chance of winning, with an average lead of 11.5 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 6%.
Compared with the average
| RN and allies | Left (NFP) | Centre (Ensemble) | Far left | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seine-Maritime — 4ème circonscription | 43.3% | 31.7% | 19.7% | 2.1% |
| Provincial averageSeine-Maritime | 39.3%+4.0 | 31.7% | 18.5%+1.1 | 1.4%+0.7 |
| National averageFrance | 36.0%+7.3 | 29.0%+2.7 | 17.0%+2.6 | 1.1%+1.0 |
Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
Alma DUFOUR · Left (NFP)
Previous election (2024)
The united left won by 0.0 points.
Our current projection: the RN and its allies ahead by 11.5 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Guillaume PENNELLE | RN and allies | 20,748 | 39.1 |
| Alma DUFOUR Elected | Left (NFP) | 17,335 | 32.7 |
| Laurent BONNATERRE | Centre (Ensemble) | 13,120 | 24.7 |
| Frédéric PODGUSZER | Far left | 1,152 | 2.2 |
| Ingrid LOSFELD | RN and allies | 736 | 1.4 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Seine-Maritime — 3ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Seine-Maritime — 1ère circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Eure — 4ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Seine-Maritime — 5ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Seine-Maritime — 10ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Eure — 2ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Forecast updated