Eure — 1ère circonscription
Legislative constituency · Eure
Forecast of July 11, 2026
Our forecast gives the RN and its allies a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 27.4 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| RN and allies | Centre (Ensemble) | Left (NFP) | Others | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eure — 1ère circonscription | 50.9% | 23.4% | 20.7% | 2.0% |
| Provincial averageEure | 48.9%+2.0 | 20.0%+3.4 | 22.0%−1.3 | 2.2%−0.2 |
| National averageFrance | 36.0%+14.9 | 17.0%+6.4 | 29.0%−8.3 | 3.9%−1.9 |
Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
Christine LOIR · RN and allies
Previous election (2024)
The RN and its allies won by 0.0 points.
Our current projection: the RN and its allies ahead by 27.4 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Christine LOIR Elected | RN and allies | 25,853 | 46.5 |
| Julien CANIN | Centre (Ensemble) | 15,837 | 28.5 |
| Christine LE BONTÉ | Left (NFP) | 11,991 | 21.6 |
| Anne DUCAMP | Far left | 1,009 | 1.8 |
| Jacques THALMANN | RN and allies | 866 | 1.6 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Eure-et-Loir — 2ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Eure — 2ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Eure — 4ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Seine-Maritime — 4ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Seine-Maritime — 3ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Eure — 5ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Forecast updated