Haute-Savoie — 4ème circonscription
Legislative constituency · Haute-Savoie
Forecast of July 11, 2026
Our forecast gives the LR right a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 6.5 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| LR and allies | RN and allies | Left (NFP) | Others | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Haute-Savoie — 4ème circonscription | 37.9% | 31.4% | 26.2% | 3.8% |
| Provincial averageHaute-Savoie | 17.2%+20.7 | 35.9%−4.5 | 23.4%+2.9 | 3.7%+0.1 |
| National averageFrance | 12.2%+25.7 | 36.0%−4.5 | 29.0%−2.8 | 3.9%−0.2 |
Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
Virginie DUBY-MULLER · LR and allies
Previous election (2024)
The LR right won by 0.0 points.
Our current projection: the LR right ahead by 6.5 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Virginie DUBY-MULLER Elected | LR and allies | 20,865 | 37.3 |
| Magalie LUHO | RN and allies | 16,159 | 28.9 |
| Dominique LACHENAL | Left (NFP) | 15,331 | 27.4 |
| Alexandre GIANESELLO | Centre (Ensemble) | 2,265 | 4.0 |
| Barbara LEMMO GAUD | Others | 945 | 1.7 |
| Cécile ROCHE | Far left | 371 | 0.7 |
| Jean-Marc LORENZO | Others | 83 | 0.2 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Haute-Savoie — 1ère circonscription Centre (Ensemble), safe seat
- Ain — 3ème circonscription Centre (Ensemble), toss-up
- Haute-Savoie — 3ème circonscription LR and allies, toss-up
- Haute-Savoie — 2ème circonscription Centre (Ensemble), toss-up
- Ain — 5ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Savoie — 4ème circonscription Left (NFP), competitive
- Forecast updated