Ain — 5ème circonscription
Legislative constituency · Ain
Forecast of July 11, 2026
Our forecast gives the RN and its allies a 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 19.4 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 3%.
Compared with the average
| RN and allies | Left (NFP) | LR and allies | Centre (Ensemble) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ain — 5ème circonscription | 43.0% | 23.6% | 23.1% | 6.8% |
| Provincial averageAin | 42.7%+0.3 | 22.5%+1.1 | 15.8%+7.4 | 15.4%−8.6 |
| National averageFrance | 36.0%+7.0 | 29.0%−5.4 | 12.2%+10.9 | 17.0%−10.2 |
Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
Marc CHAVENT · RN and allies
Previous election (2024)
The RN and its allies won by 0.0 points.
Our current projection: the RN and its allies ahead by 19.4 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marc CHAVENT Elected | RN and allies | 20,161 | 39.1 |
| Florence PISANI | Left (NFP) | 12,542 | 24.3 |
| Damien ABAD | LR and allies | 9,651 | 18.7 |
| Nathalie DESCOURS | Centre (Ensemble) | 6,036 | 11.7 |
| Fabrice BOURDIN | LR and allies | 1,623 | 3.2 |
| Sylvie CROZET | Far left | 606 | 1.2 |
| Thomas CHATELARD | Greens | 484 | 0.9 |
| Maria Cristina PATRU | RN and allies | 429 | 0.8 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Ain — 3ème circonscription Centre (Ensemble), toss-up
- Isère — 6ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Savoie — 1ère circonscription RN and allies, toss-up
- Haute-Savoie — 4ème circonscription LR and allies, safe seat
- Ain — 1ère circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Isère — 10ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Forecast updated