Ain — 1ère circonscription
Legislative constituency · Ain
Forecast of July 11, 2026
Our forecast gives the RN and its allies a 93% chance of winning, with an average lead of 17.1 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 14%.
Compared with the average
| RN and allies | LR and allies | Left (NFP) | Centre (Ensemble) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ain — 1ère circonscription | 42.2% | 25.1% | 22.6% | 6.7% |
| Provincial averageAin | 42.7%−0.5 | 15.8%+9.3 | 22.5%+0.1 | 15.4%−8.7 |
| National averageFrance | 36.0%+6.2 | 12.2%+12.8 | 29.0%−6.4 | 17.0%−10.3 |
Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
Xavier BRETON · LR and allies
Previous election (2024)
The LR right won by 0.0 points.
Our current projection: the RN and its allies ahead by 17.1 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Christophe MAÎTRE | RN and allies | 23,819 | 39.4 |
| Xavier BRETON Elected | LR and allies | 14,495 | 24.0 |
| Sébastien GUERAUD | Left (NFP) | 14,188 | 23.5 |
| Vincent GUILLERMIN | Centre (Ensemble) | 7,063 | 11.7 |
| Éric LAHY | Far left | 419 | 0.7 |
| Michael MENDES | Sovereignists | 314 | 0.5 |
| Cyril VINCENT | Sovereignists | 197 | 0.3 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Ain — 4ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Ain — 2ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Saône-et-Loire — 4ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Jura — 1ère circonscription RN and allies, toss-up
- Ain — 5ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Saône-et-Loire — 1ère circonscription RN and allies, competitive
- Forecast updated