Jura — 1ère circonscription
Legislative constituency · Jura
Forecast of July 11, 2026
Our forecast gives the RN and its allies a 58% chance of winning, with an average lead of 10.8 points.
Toss-up. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 84%.
Compared with the average
| RN and allies | Centre (Ensemble) | Left (NFP) | Others | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jura — 1ère circonscription | 41.8% | 31.0% | 22.2% | 2.0% |
| Provincial averageJura | 39.1%+2.7 | 10.3%+20.7 | 22.4%−0.2 | 1.9%+0.1 |
| National averageFrance | 36.0%+5.9 | 17.0%+14.0 | 29.0%−6.8 | 3.9%−1.9 |
Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
Danielle BRULEBOIS · Centre (Ensemble)
Previous election (2024)
The centrist bloc won by 0.0 points.
Our current projection: the RN and its allies ahead by 10.8 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valérie GRABY | RN and allies | 17,517 | 39.0 |
| Danielle BRULEBOIS Elected | Centre (Ensemble) | 16,231 | 36.2 |
| Anthony BRONDEL | Left (NFP) | 10,352 | 23.1 |
| Johanne MOREL | Far left | 786 | 1.8 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Jura — 2ème circonscription LR and allies, safe seat
- Saône-et-Loire — 4ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Jura — 3ème circonscription LR and allies, toss-up
- Ain — 1ère circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Ain — 5ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Ain — 3ème circonscription Centre (Ensemble), toss-up
- Forecast updated