Saône-et-Loire — 4ème circonscription
Legislative constituency · Saône-et-Loire
Forecast of July 11, 2026
Our forecast gives the RN and its allies a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 17.2 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| RN and allies | Left (NFP) | LR and allies | Others | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saône-et-Loire — 4ème circonscription | 44.9% | 27.7% | 22.3% | 1.9% |
| Provincial averageSaône-et-Loire | 41.3%+3.6 | 22.4%+5.3 | 18.9%+3.5 | 2.0%−0.1 |
| National averageFrance | 36.0%+8.9 | 29.0%−1.3 | 12.2%+10.1 | 3.9%−2.0 |
Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
Eric MICHOUX · RN and allies
Previous election (2024)
The RN and its allies won by 0.0 points.
Our current projection: the RN and its allies ahead by 17.2 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Eric MICHOUX Elected | RN and allies | 24,275 | 44.3 |
| Cécile UNTERMAIER | Left (NFP) | 16,403 | 30.0 |
| Anthony VADOT | LR and allies | 12,222 | 22.3 |
| Claude COURATIER | Far left | 1,115 | 2.0 |
| Véronique BELLEST | Sovereignists | 728 | 1.3 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Jura — 1ère circonscription RN and allies, toss-up
- Ain — 1ère circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Saône-et-Loire — 5ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Ain — 4ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Saône-et-Loire — 1ère circonscription RN and allies, competitive
- Côte-d'Or — 3ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Forecast updated