Saône-et-Loire — 5ème circonscription
Legislative constituency · Saône-et-Loire
Forecast of July 11, 2026
Our forecast gives the RN and its allies a 90% chance of winning, with an average lead of 15.5 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 20%.
Compared with the average
| RN and allies | Left (NFP) | LR and allies | Centre (Ensemble) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saône-et-Loire — 5ème circonscription | 38.0% | 22.4% | 20.4% | 15.7% |
| Provincial averageSaône-et-Loire | 41.3%−3.3 | 22.4%+0.1 | 18.9%+1.5 | 13.2%+2.5 |
| National averageFrance | 36.0%+2.0 | 29.0%−6.6 | 12.2%+8.2 | 17.0%−1.3 |
Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
Arnaud SANVERT · RN and allies
Previous election (2024)
The RN and its allies won by 0.0 points.
Our current projection: the RN and its allies ahead by 15.5 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arnaud SANVERT Elected | RN and allies | 19,807 | 35.1 |
| Fatima KOURICHE | Left (NFP) | 13,130 | 23.3 |
| Louis MARGUERITTE | Centre (Ensemble) | 11,699 | 20.7 |
| Gilles PLATRET | LR and allies | 10,746 | 19.1 |
| Pascal DUFRAIGNE | Far left | 888 | 1.6 |
| Alain CADIOT | LR and allies | 125 | 0.2 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Saône-et-Loire — 3ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Saône-et-Loire — 1ère circonscription RN and allies, competitive
- Côte-d'Or — 5ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Saône-et-Loire — 4ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Saône-et-Loire — 2ème circonscription LR and allies, toss-up
- Rhône — 9ème circonscription LR and allies, toss-up
- Forecast updated