Sarthe — 5ème circonscription
Legislative constituency · Sarthe
Forecast of July 11, 2026
Our forecast gives the RN and its allies a 92% chance of winning, with an average lead of 14.9 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 17%.
Compared with the average
| RN and allies | Centre (Ensemble) | Left (NFP) | Sovereignists | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sarthe — 5ème circonscription | 41.0% | 26.2% | 25.8% | 2.3% |
| Provincial averageSarthe | 40.6%+0.4 | 19.4%+6.8 | 26.0%−0.2 | 0.7%+1.6 |
| National averageFrance | 36.0%+5.1 | 17.0%+9.2 | 29.0%−3.2 | 0.3%+2.0 |
Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
Jean-Carles GRELIER · Centre (Ensemble)
Previous election (2024)
The centrist bloc won by 0.0 points.
Our current projection: the RN and its allies ahead by 14.9 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pierre VAUGARNY | RN and allies | 21,870 | 38.2 |
| Jean-Carles GRELIER Elected | Centre (Ensemble) | 17,898 | 31.3 |
| Christophe ROUILLON | Left (NFP) | 15,261 | 26.7 |
| Cécile BAYLE DE JESSÉ | Sovereignists | 1,285 | 2.2 |
| Karine FOUQUET | Far left | 899 | 1.6 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Sarthe — 2ème circonscription RN and allies, toss-up
- Sarthe — 1ère circonscription RN and allies, toss-up
- Sarthe — 3ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Orne — 2ème circonscription RN and allies, competitive
- Eure-et-Loir — 3ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Sarthe — 4ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Forecast updated