Sarthe — 2ème circonscription
Legislative constituency · Sarthe
Forecast of July 11, 2026
Our forecast gives the RN and its allies a 55% chance of winning, with an average lead of 0.8 points.
Toss-up. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 91%.
Compared with the average
| Left (NFP) | RN and allies | LR and allies | Others | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sarthe — 2ème circonscription | 37.2% | 36.3% | 23.1% | 2.1% |
| Provincial averageSarthe | 26.0%+11.2 | 40.6%−4.3 | 9.9%+13.2 | 2.1% |
| National averageFrance | 29.0%+8.1 | 36.0%+0.4 | 12.2%+10.8 | 3.9%−1.9 |
Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
Marietta KARAMANLI · Left (NFP)
Previous election (2024)
The united left won by 0.0 points.
Our current projection: the RN and its allies ahead by 0.8 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marietta KARAMANLI Elected | Left (NFP) | 20,700 | 40.0 |
| François FEVRE | RN and allies | 18,282 | 35.3 |
| Samuel CHEVALLIER | LR and allies | 11,962 | 23.1 |
| Thomas HUBERT | Far left | 776 | 1.5 |
| Clément CHEURET | Others | 91 | 0.2 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Sarthe — 5ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Sarthe — 3ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Sarthe — 1ère circonscription RN and allies, toss-up
- Sarthe — 4ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Indre-et-Loire — 5ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Orne — 2ème circonscription RN and allies, competitive
- Forecast updated