Sarthe — 1ère circonscription
Legislative constituency · Sarthe
Forecast of July 11, 2026
Our forecast gives the RN and its allies a 58% chance of winning, with an average lead of 10.7 points.
Toss-up. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 83%.
Compared with the average
| RN and allies | Centre (Ensemble) | Left (NFP) | LR and allies | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sarthe — 1ère circonscription | 36.4% | 25.7% | 24.1% | 10.3% |
| Provincial averageSarthe | 40.6%−4.2 | 19.4%+6.4 | 26.0%−1.8 | 9.9%+0.4 |
| National averageFrance | 36.0%+0.5 | 17.0%+8.7 | 29.0%−4.9 | 12.2%−1.9 |
Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
Julie DELPECH · Centre (Ensemble)
Previous election (2024)
The centrist bloc won by 0.0 points.
Our current projection: the RN and its allies ahead by 10.7 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Céline DE COSSÉ BRISSAC | RN and allies | 16,465 | 33.6 |
| Julie DELPECH Elected | Centre (Ensemble) | 15,111 | 30.8 |
| Ghislaine BONNET | Left (NFP) | 12,258 | 25.0 |
| Clément COULON | LR and allies | 4,459 | 9.1 |
| Sylvie MAILLET | Far left | 710 | 1.5 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Sarthe — 4ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Sarthe — 2ème circonscription RN and allies, toss-up
- Sarthe — 5ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Orne — 1ère circonscription RN and allies, toss-up
- Mayenne — 1ère circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Sarthe — 3ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Forecast updated