Orne — 1ère circonscription
Legislative constituency · Orne
Forecast of July 11, 2026
Our forecast gives the RN and its allies a 56% chance of winning, with an average lead of 10.5 points.
Toss-up. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 86%.
Compared with the average
| RN and allies | Centre (Ensemble) | Left (NFP) | Others | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orne — 1ère circonscription | 39.0% | 28.5% | 26.5% | 2.0% |
| Provincial averageOrne | 39.1%−0.1 | 10.2%+18.3 | 20.6%+5.9 | 2.0% |
| National averageFrance | 36.0%+3.0 | 17.0%+11.5 | 29.0%−2.6 | 3.9%−1.9 |
Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
Chantal JOURDAN · Left (NFP)
Previous election (2024)
The united left won by 0.0 points.
Our current projection: the RN and its allies ahead by 10.5 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nadine BELZIDSKY | RN and allies | 15,783 | 35.2 |
| Chantal JOURDAN Elected | Left (NFP) | 12,264 | 27.3 |
| Patricia CHAPELOTTE | Centre (Ensemble) | 9,658 | 21.5 |
| Manuela CHEVALIER | Centre (Ensemble) | 5,405 | 12.0 |
| David GÉNITEAU | Sovereignists | 570 | 1.3 |
| Camille PERCHET | Far left | 476 | 1.1 |
| Daniel LECOMTE | RN and allies | 450 | 1.0 |
| Didier DURANDY | LR and allies | 263 | 0.6 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Orne — 3ème circonscription LR and allies, safe seat
- Mayenne — 1ère circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Sarthe — 1ère circonscription RN and allies, toss-up
- Mayenne — 3ème circonscription Centre (Ensemble), safe seat
- Calvados — 3ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Calvados — 6ème circonscription Centre (Ensemble), toss-up
- Forecast updated