Calvados — 3ème circonscription
Legislative constituency · Calvados
Forecast of July 11, 2026
Our forecast gives the RN and its allies a 93% chance of winning, with an average lead of 12.6 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 15%.
Compared with the average
| RN and allies | Centre (Ensemble) | Left (NFP) | Sovereignists | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calvados — 3ème circonscription | 43.9% | 31.3% | 18.1% | 2.1% |
| Provincial averageCalvados | 34.8%+9.1 | 19.8%+11.5 | 26.1%−8.0 | 1.2%+0.9 |
| National averageFrance | 36.0%+7.9 | 17.0%+14.3 | 29.0%−10.9 | 0.3%+1.8 |
Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
Jérémie PATRIER-LEITUS · Centre (Ensemble)
Previous election (2024)
The centrist bloc won by 0.0 points.
Our current projection: the RN and its allies ahead by 12.6 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Edouard FAUVAGE | RN and allies | 21,575 | 41.1 |
| Jérémie PATRIER-LEITUS Elected | Centre (Ensemble) | 19,144 | 36.5 |
| Olivier TRUFFAUT | Left (NFP) | 9,959 | 19.0 |
| Steven MAFIODO | Sovereignists | 1,080 | 2.1 |
| Michel LANGEVIN | Far left | 732 | 1.4 |
| Thierry Paul VALETTE | Others | 12 | 0.0 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Calvados — 4ème circonscription RN and allies, toss-up
- Calvados — 2ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Orne — 3ème circonscription LR and allies, safe seat
- Calvados — 1ère circonscription LR and allies, safe seat
- Seine-Maritime — 8ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Orne — 1ère circonscription RN and allies, toss-up
- Forecast updated