Calvados — 2ème circonscription
Legislative constituency · Calvados
Forecast of July 11, 2026
Our forecast gives the united left a 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 12.7 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 2%.
Compared with the average
| Left (NFP) | RN and allies | LR and allies | Centre (Ensemble) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calvados — 2ème circonscription | 41.4% | 28.7% | 16.6% | 9.0% |
| Provincial averageCalvados | 26.1%+15.3 | 34.8%−6.1 | 15.1%+1.5 | 19.8%−10.8 |
| National averageFrance | 29.0%+12.3 | 36.0%−7.3 | 12.2%+4.4 | 17.0%−8.0 |
Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
Arthur DELAPORTE · Left (NFP)
Previous election (2024)
The united left won by 0.0 points.
Our current projection: the united left ahead by 12.7 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arthur DELAPORTE Elected | Left (NFP) | 19,662 | 42.3 |
| Josseline LIBAN | RN and allies | 11,999 | 25.8 |
| Camille BROU | LR and allies | 7,159 | 15.4 |
| Gregory BERKOVICZ | Centre (Ensemble) | 6,503 | 14.0 |
| Cédric BAZINCOURT | Sovereignists | 566 | 1.2 |
| Christophe GARCIA | Far left | 547 | 1.2 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Calvados — 1ère circonscription LR and allies, safe seat
- Calvados — 3ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Calvados — 4ème circonscription RN and allies, toss-up
- Calvados — 6ème circonscription Centre (Ensemble), toss-up
- Orne — 3ème circonscription LR and allies, safe seat
- Calvados — 5ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Forecast updated