Calvados — 1ère circonscription
Legislative constituency · Calvados
Forecast of July 11, 2026
Our forecast gives the LR right a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 9.7 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 1%.
Compared with the average
| LR and allies | Left (NFP) | RN and allies | Others | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calvados — 1ère circonscription | 42.0% | 32.3% | 22.9% | 1.9% |
| Provincial averageCalvados | 15.1%+27.0 | 26.1%+6.2 | 34.8%−11.9 | 2.0%−0.1 |
| National averageFrance | 12.2%+29.8 | 29.0%+3.3 | 36.0%−13.1 | 3.9%−2.0 |
Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
Joël BRUNEAU · LR and allies
Previous election (2024)
The LR right won by 0.0 points.
Our current projection: the LR right ahead by 9.7 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Joël BRUNEAU Elected | LR and allies | 22,596 | 43.1 |
| Emma FOURREAU | Left (NFP) | 18,250 | 34.8 |
| Ludivine DAOUDI | RN and allies | 10,458 | 20.0 |
| Matéo LELOUP | RN and allies | 604 | 1.2 |
| Pierre CASEVITZ | Far left | 510 | 1.0 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Calvados — 6ème circonscription Centre (Ensemble), toss-up
- Calvados — 2ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Calvados — 5ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Calvados — 3ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Orne — 3ème circonscription LR and allies, safe seat
- Calvados — 4ème circonscription RN and allies, toss-up
- Forecast updated