Calvados — 4ème circonscription
Legislative constituency · Calvados
Forecast of July 11, 2026
Our forecast gives the RN and its allies a 57% chance of winning, with an average lead of 10.0 points.
Toss-up. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 86%.
Compared with the average
| RN and allies | Centre (Ensemble) | Left (NFP) | LR and allies | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calvados — 4ème circonscription | 37.7% | 27.7% | 18.9% | 12.1% |
| Provincial averageCalvados | 34.8%+2.9 | 19.8%+7.9 | 26.1%−7.2 | 15.1%−3.0 |
| National averageFrance | 36.0%+1.7 | 17.0%+10.7 | 29.0%−10.1 | 12.2%−0.1 |
Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
Christophe BLANCHET · Centre (Ensemble)
Previous election (2024)
The centrist bloc won by 0.0 points.
Our current projection: the RN and its allies ahead by 10.0 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chantal HENRY | RN and allies | 24,230 | 33.6 |
| Christophe BLANCHET Elected | Centre (Ensemble) | 23,622 | 32.8 |
| Pierre MOURARET | Left (NFP) | 14,247 | 19.8 |
| Sophie GAUGAIN | LR and allies | 7,847 | 10.9 |
| Pascale DEUTSCH | RN and allies | 878 | 1.2 |
| François BUISSON | Sovereignists | 747 | 1.0 |
| Patrick POIROT-BOURDAIN | Far left | 442 | 0.6 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Calvados — 3ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Seine-Maritime — 8ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Seine-Maritime — 7ème circonscription Centre (Ensemble), toss-up
- Calvados — 2ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Seine-Maritime — 9ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Eure — 3ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Forecast updated