Orne — 3ème circonscription
Legislative constituency · Orne
Forecast of July 11, 2026
Our forecast gives the LR right a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 8.0 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| LR and allies | RN and allies | Left (NFP) | Others | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orne — 3ème circonscription | 42.6% | 34.6% | 19.3% | 1.9% |
| Provincial averageOrne | 26.1%+16.4 | 39.1%−4.6 | 20.6%−1.3 | 2.0%−0.1 |
| National averageFrance | 12.2%+30.4 | 36.0%−1.4 | 29.0%−9.8 | 3.9%−2.0 |
Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
Jérôme NURY · LR and allies
Previous election (2024)
The LR right won by 0.0 points.
Our current projection: the LR right ahead by 8.0 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jérôme NURY Elected | LR and allies | 20,701 | 43.7 |
| Ludmila PETCHENINA | RN and allies | 15,364 | 32.4 |
| Lori HELLOCO | Left (NFP) | 9,988 | 21.1 |
| Arnaud GAUTIER | Far left | 857 | 1.8 |
| Sylvia HENOT | RN and allies | 488 | 1.0 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Orne — 1ère circonscription RN and allies, toss-up
- Calvados — 3ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Calvados — 6ème circonscription Centre (Ensemble), toss-up
- Calvados — 2ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Calvados — 1ère circonscription LR and allies, safe seat
- Mayenne — 1ère circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Forecast updated