Mayenne — 1ère circonscription
Legislative constituency · Mayenne
Forecast of July 11, 2026
Our forecast gives the united left a 98% chance of winning, with an average lead of 12.3 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 3%.
Compared with the average
| Left (NFP) | RN and allies | LR and allies | Others | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mayenne — 1ère circonscription | 42.3% | 30.0% | 25.0% | 1.9% |
| Provincial averageMayenne | 27.5%+14.8 | 32.9%−2.9 | 12.2%+12.8 | 2.1%−0.2 |
| National averageFrance | 29.0%+13.3 | 36.0%−6.0 | 12.2%+12.7 | 3.9%−2.0 |
Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
Guillaume GAROT · Left (NFP)
Previous election (2024)
The united left won by 0.0 points.
Our current projection: the united left ahead by 12.3 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Guillaume GAROT Elected | Left (NFP) | 22,483 | 45.4 |
| Paule VEYRE DE SORAS | RN and allies | 14,161 | 28.6 |
| Vincent SAULNIER | LR and allies | 9,957 | 20.1 |
| Stéphanie HIBON ARTHUIS | LR and allies | 2,467 | 5.0 |
| Fabrice ROMIER | Far left | 465 | 0.9 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Mayenne — 3ème circonscription Centre (Ensemble), safe seat
- Mayenne — 2ème circonscription Centre (Ensemble), safe seat
- Orne — 1ère circonscription RN and allies, toss-up
- Sarthe — 4ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Sarthe — 1ère circonscription RN and allies, toss-up
- Orne — 3ème circonscription LR and allies, safe seat
- Forecast updated