Sarthe — 4ème circonscription
Legislative constituency · Sarthe
Forecast of July 11, 2026
Our forecast gives the RN and its allies a 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 17.0 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 1%.
Compared with the average
| RN and allies | Left (NFP) | Centre (Ensemble) | LR and allies | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sarthe — 4ème circonscription | 42.1% | 25.1% | 20.8% | 8.6% |
| Provincial averageSarthe | 40.6%+1.4 | 26.0%−0.9 | 19.4%+1.4 | 9.9%−1.3 |
| National averageFrance | 36.0%+6.1 | 29.0%−4.0 | 17.0%+3.8 | 12.2%−3.7 |
Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
Elise LEBOUCHER · Left (NFP)
Previous election (2024)
The united left won by 0.0 points.
Our current projection: the RN and its allies ahead by 17.0 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marie-Caroline LE PEN | RN and allies | 20,584 | 39.3 |
| Elise LEBOUCHER Elected | Left (NFP) | 13,600 | 25.9 |
| Sylvie CASENAVE-PÉRÉ | Centre (Ensemble) | 13,565 | 25.9 |
| Léo BRISARD | LR and allies | 2,316 | 4.4 |
| Didier BARBET | LR and allies | 1,546 | 2.9 |
| Thierry NOUCHY | Far left | 596 | 1.1 |
| Jean-Michel BRUGADE | Others | 217 | 0.4 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Sarthe — 1ère circonscription RN and allies, toss-up
- Maine-et-Loire — 3ème circonscription RN and allies, competitive
- Mayenne — 1ère circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Maine-et-Loire — 1ère circonscription Left (NFP), toss-up
- Sarthe — 3ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Sarthe — 2ème circonscription RN and allies, toss-up
- Forecast updated