Maine-et-Loire — 1ère circonscription
Legislative constituency · Maine-et-Loire
Forecast of July 11, 2026
Our forecast gives the united left a 73% chance of winning, with an average lead of 3.2 points.
Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 53%.
Compared with the average
| Left (NFP) | Centre (Ensemble) | RN and allies | LR and allies | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maine-et-Loire — 1ère circonscription | 32.9% | 29.7% | 26.7% | 7.4% |
| Provincial averageMaine-et-Loire | 24.5%+8.4 | 27.3%+2.4 | 32.8%−6.1 | 11.1%−3.7 |
| National averageFrance | 29.0%+3.9 | 17.0%+12.7 | 36.0%−9.2 | 12.2%−4.8 |
Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
François GERNIGON · Centre (Ensemble)
Previous election (2024)
The centrist bloc won by 0.0 points.
Our current projection: the united left ahead by 3.2 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| François GERNIGON Elected | Centre (Ensemble) | 21,087 | 34.8 |
| Elsa RICHARD | Left (NFP) | 20,475 | 33.8 |
| Hugo LOUVIGNE | RN and allies | 13,995 | 23.1 |
| Séverine LÉCUYER | LR and allies | 3,736 | 6.2 |
| Marie Louise DUPAS | Far left | 642 | 1.1 |
| Roselyne PRUNIERE | RN and allies | 432 | 0.7 |
| Anthony GOUAS | Far left | 173 | 0.3 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Maine-et-Loire — 2ème circonscription Centre (Ensemble), safe seat
- Mayenne — 2ème circonscription Centre (Ensemble), safe seat
- Maine-et-Loire — 3ème circonscription RN and allies, competitive
- Maine-et-Loire — 7ème circonscription Centre (Ensemble), toss-up
- Sarthe — 4ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Maine-et-Loire — 4ème circonscription Centre (Ensemble), toss-up
- Forecast updated