Maine-et-Loire — 4ème circonscription
Legislative constituency · Maine-et-Loire
Forecast of July 11, 2026
Our forecast gives the centrist bloc a 50% chance of winning, with an average lead of 8.0 points.
Toss-up. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 100%.
Compared with the average
| RN and allies | Centre (Ensemble) | Left (NFP) | LR and allies | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maine-et-Loire — 4ème circonscription | 37.7% | 29.8% | 19.7% | 7.9% |
| Provincial averageMaine-et-Loire | 32.8%+4.9 | 27.3%+2.5 | 24.5%−4.8 | 11.1%−3.2 |
| National averageFrance | 36.0%+1.8 | 17.0%+12.7 | 29.0%−9.3 | 12.2%−4.3 |
Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
Laëtitia SAINT-PAUL · Centre (Ensemble)
Previous election (2024)
The centrist bloc won by 0.0 points.
Our current projection: the centrist bloc ahead by 8.0 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aurore LAHONDÈS | RN and allies | 18,014 | 34.9 |
| Laëtitia SAINT-PAUL Elected | Centre (Ensemble) | 18,001 | 34.9 |
| Charlyne BOUVET | Left (NFP) | 10,629 | 20.6 |
| Frédéric MORTIER | LR and allies | 3,455 | 6.7 |
| Delphine HAMON | Sovereignists | 769 | 1.5 |
| Sylvie GERET | Far left | 750 | 1.5 |
| Nicolas VITASSE | Far left | 3 | 0.0 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Maine-et-Loire — 2ème circonscription Centre (Ensemble), safe seat
- Deux-Sèvres — 3ème circonscription RN and allies, toss-up
- Maine-et-Loire — 3ème circonscription RN and allies, competitive
- Maine-et-Loire — 1ère circonscription Left (NFP), toss-up
- Maine-et-Loire — 5ème circonscription Centre (Ensemble), toss-up
- Maine-et-Loire — 6ème circonscription Centre (Ensemble), safe seat
- Forecast updated