Maine-et-Loire — 5ème circonscription
Legislative constituency · Maine-et-Loire
Forecast of July 11, 2026
Our forecast gives the centrist bloc a 70% chance of winning, with an average lead of 5.9 points.
Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 61%.
Compared with the average
| RN and allies | Centre (Ensemble) | Left (NFP) | LR and allies | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maine-et-Loire — 5ème circonscription | 34.5% | 28.6% | 20.5% | 11.4% |
| Provincial averageMaine-et-Loire | 32.8%+1.7 | 27.3%+1.3 | 24.5%−4.1 | 11.1%+0.3 |
| National averageFrance | 36.0%−1.5 | 17.0%+11.6 | 29.0%−8.5 | 12.2%−0.8 |
Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
Denis MASSEGLIA · Centre (Ensemble)
Previous election (2024)
The centrist bloc won by 0.0 points.
Our current projection: the centrist bloc ahead by 5.9 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Denis MASSEGLIA Elected | Centre (Ensemble) | 17,730 | 33.7 |
| Gilles BOURDOULEIX | RN and allies | 16,066 | 30.5 |
| France MOREAU | Left (NFP) | 11,220 | 21.3 |
| Jacquelin LIGOT | LR and allies | 5,362 | 10.2 |
| Frédéric GUYARD | Sovereignists | 822 | 1.6 |
| Didier TESTU | Far left | 821 | 1.6 |
| Véronique ESTANG | RN and allies | 583 | 1.1 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Maine-et-Loire — 6ème circonscription Centre (Ensemble), safe seat
- Vendée — 4ème circonscription LR and allies, safe seat
- Maine-et-Loire — 2ème circonscription Centre (Ensemble), safe seat
- Loire-Atlantique — 10ème circonscription Left (NFP), toss-up
- Maine-et-Loire — 7ème circonscription Centre (Ensemble), toss-up
- Maine-et-Loire — 4ème circonscription Centre (Ensemble), toss-up
- Forecast updated