Mayenne — 2ème circonscription
Legislative constituency · Mayenne
Forecast of July 11, 2026
Our forecast gives the centrist bloc a 89% chance of winning, with an average lead of 4.6 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 22%.
Compared with the average
| RN and allies | Centre (Ensemble) | Left (NFP) | LR and allies | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mayenne — 2ème circonscription | 34.6% | 30.1% | 21.9% | 10.3% |
| Provincial averageMayenne | 32.9%+1.8 | 24.5%+5.5 | 27.5%−5.6 | 12.2%−1.8 |
| National averageFrance | 36.0%−1.3 | 17.0%+13.0 | 29.0%−7.1 | 12.2%−1.9 |
Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
Géraldine BANNIER · Centre (Ensemble)
Previous election (2024)
The centrist bloc won by 0.0 points.
Our current projection: the centrist bloc ahead by 4.6 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Géraldine BANNIER Elected | Centre (Ensemble) | 18,746 | 35.2 |
| Jean-Michel CADENAS | RN and allies | 16,944 | 31.8 |
| Grégory BOISSEAU | Left (NFP) | 12,135 | 22.8 |
| Pierre-Elie GUYON | LR and allies | 4,877 | 9.1 |
| Jean-Luc PLACE | Far left | 390 | 0.7 |
| Patrice GRUDE | Others | 209 | 0.4 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Maine-et-Loire — 1ère circonscription Left (NFP), toss-up
- Mayenne — 1ère circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Maine-et-Loire — 7ème circonscription Centre (Ensemble), toss-up
- Mayenne — 3ème circonscription Centre (Ensemble), safe seat
- Sarthe — 4ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Maine-et-Loire — 2ème circonscription Centre (Ensemble), safe seat
- Forecast updated