Sarthe — 3ème circonscription
Legislative constituency · Sarthe
Forecast of July 11, 2026
Our forecast gives the RN and its allies a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 23.3 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| RN and allies | Centre (Ensemble) | Left (NFP) | LR and allies | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sarthe — 3ème circonscription | 47.4% | 24.1% | 17.7% | 6.3% |
| Provincial averageSarthe | 40.6%+6.7 | 19.4%+4.7 | 26.0%−8.2 | 9.9%−3.6 |
| National averageFrance | 36.0%+11.4 | 17.0%+7.1 | 29.0%−11.3 | 12.2%−5.9 |
Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
Eric MARTINEAU · Centre (Ensemble)
Previous election (2024)
The centrist bloc won by 0.0 points.
Our current projection: the RN and its allies ahead by 23.3 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Romain LEMOIGNE | RN and allies | 23,637 | 42.5 |
| Eric MARTINEAU Elected | Centre (Ensemble) | 16,209 | 29.2 |
| Mathilde JACK | Left (NFP) | 10,319 | 18.6 |
| Vincent GRUAU | LR and allies | 2,819 | 5.1 |
| Raymond DE MALHERBE | RN and allies | 1,131 | 2.0 |
| Maryse BRUTOUT | Far left | 885 | 1.6 |
| Éric TROCHON | Sovereignists | 558 | 1.0 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Sarthe — 2ème circonscription RN and allies, toss-up
- Indre-et-Loire — 5ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Sarthe — 5ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Sarthe — 4ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Sarthe — 1ère circonscription RN and allies, toss-up
- Maine-et-Loire — 3ème circonscription RN and allies, competitive
- Forecast updated