Calvados — 5ème circonscription
Legislative constituency · Calvados
Forecast of July 11, 2026
Our forecast gives the RN and its allies a 96% chance of winning, with an average lead of 12.1 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 6%.
Compared with the average
| RN and allies | Left (NFP) | Centre (Ensemble) | LR and allies | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calvados — 5ème circonscription | 35.7% | 23.6% | 19.5% | 17.3% |
| Provincial averageCalvados | 34.8%+0.9 | 26.1%−2.5 | 19.8%−0.3 | 15.1%+2.2 |
| National averageFrance | 36.0%−0.3 | 29.0%−5.4 | 17.0%+2.5 | 12.2%+5.1 |
Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
Bertrand BOUYX · Centre (Ensemble)
Previous election (2024)
The centrist bloc won by 0.0 points.
Our current projection: the RN and its allies ahead by 12.1 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Philippe CHAPRON | RN and allies | 21,001 | 31.9 |
| Bertrand BOUYX Elected | Centre (Ensemble) | 16,208 | 24.6 |
| Thomas DUPONT-FEDERICI | Left (NFP) | 16,124 | 24.5 |
| Cédric NOUVELOT | LR and allies | 10,655 | 16.2 |
| Jean-Alexis GÉREUX | Sovereignists | 775 | 1.2 |
| Tony DESCLOS | RN and allies | 662 | 1.0 |
| Isabelle PELTRE | Far left | 488 | 0.7 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Calvados — 1ère circonscription LR and allies, safe seat
- Calvados — 6ème circonscription Centre (Ensemble), toss-up
- Manche — 1ère circonscription LR and allies, safe seat
- Calvados — 2ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Orne — 3ème circonscription LR and allies, safe seat
- Manche — 3ème circonscription RN and allies, toss-up
- Forecast updated