Manche — 3ème circonscription
Legislative constituency · Manche
Forecast of July 11, 2026
Our forecast gives the RN and its allies a 50% chance of winning, with an average lead of 9.8 points.
Toss-up. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 99%.
Compared with the average
| RN and allies | Centre (Ensemble) | Left (NFP) | Others | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manche — 3ème circonscription | 38.0% | 28.3% | 19.3% | 11.2% |
| Provincial averageManche | 36.2%+1.8 | 19.7%+8.5 | 21.7%−2.4 | 4.3%+6.9 |
| National averageFrance | 36.0%+2.1 | 17.0%+11.3 | 29.0%−9.8 | 3.9%+7.2 |
Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
Stéphane TRAVERT · Centre (Ensemble)
Previous election (2024)
The centrist bloc won by 0.0 points.
Our current projection: the RN and its allies ahead by 9.8 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pierre GIRY | RN and allies | 25,725 | 33.9 |
| Stéphane TRAVERT Elected | Centre (Ensemble) | 25,232 | 33.2 |
| Gaëlle VEROVE | Left (NFP) | 15,191 | 20.0 |
| Stéphanie MAUBÉ | Others | 6,951 | 9.2 |
| Yohann QUESNEL | Sovereignists | 945 | 1.2 |
| Christian GUYOT | RN and allies | 842 | 1.1 |
| Mansour AYOUTI | Far left | 629 | 0.8 |
| Aurélien VERLEYEN | Greens | 389 | 0.5 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Manche — 1ère circonscription LR and allies, safe seat
- Manche — 4ème circonscription RN and allies, toss-up
- Manche — 2ème circonscription Centre (Ensemble), safe seat
- Calvados — 5ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Ille-et-Vilaine — 7ème circonscription LR and allies, safe seat
- Ille-et-Vilaine — 6ème circonscription Centre (Ensemble), safe seat
- Forecast updated