Manche — 1ère circonscription
Legislative constituency · Manche
Forecast of July 11, 2026
Our forecast gives the LR right a 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 3.2 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 1%.
Compared with the average
| LR and allies | RN and allies | Left (NFP) | Centre (Ensemble) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manche — 1ère circonscription | 39.8% | 36.6% | 17.6% | 3.1% |
| Provincial averageManche | 16.7%+23.1 | 36.2%+0.4 | 21.7%−4.1 | 19.7%−16.7 |
| National averageFrance | 12.2%+27.6 | 36.0%+0.6 | 29.0%−11.4 | 17.0%−13.9 |
Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
Philippe GOSSELIN · LR and allies
Previous election (2024)
The LR right won by 0.0 points.
Our current projection: the LR right ahead by 3.2 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Philippe GOSSELIN Elected | LR and allies | 22,513 | 38.3 |
| Franck SIMON | RN and allies | 19,333 | 32.9 |
| Guillaume HEDOUIN | Left (NFP) | 10,792 | 18.4 |
| Michaël MASSON | Centre (Ensemble) | 4,723 | 8.0 |
| Olivia LEWI | Far left | 578 | 1.0 |
| Laurent BESAGNY | RN and allies | 418 | 0.7 |
| Baptiste RAJAUT | Greens | 250 | 0.4 |
| Jacques POISSON | LR and allies | 171 | 0.3 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Manche — 3ème circonscription RN and allies, toss-up
- Calvados — 5ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Manche — 2ème circonscription Centre (Ensemble), safe seat
- Calvados — 6ème circonscription Centre (Ensemble), toss-up
- Manche — 4ème circonscription RN and allies, toss-up
- Calvados — 1ère circonscription LR and allies, safe seat
- Forecast updated