Manche — 4ème circonscription
Legislative constituency · Manche
Forecast of July 11, 2026
Our forecast gives the RN and its allies a 64% chance of winning, with an average lead of 1.1 points.
Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 73%.
Compared with the average
| RN and allies | Left (NFP) | LR and allies | Centre (Ensemble) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manche — 4ème circonscription | 34.4% | 33.3% | 16.0% | 12.9% |
| Provincial averageManche | 36.2%−1.8 | 21.7%+11.6 | 16.7%−0.7 | 19.7%−6.9 |
| National averageFrance | 36.0%−1.6 | 29.0%+4.3 | 12.2%+3.8 | 17.0%−4.1 |
Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
Anna PIC · Left (NFP)
Previous election (2024)
The united left won by 0.0 points.
Our current projection: the RN and its allies ahead by 1.1 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Anna PIC Elected | Left (NFP) | 19,940 | 34.2 |
| Nicolas CONQUER | RN and allies | 17,481 | 30.0 |
| Yann LEPETIT | Centre (Ensemble) | 10,417 | 17.9 |
| Camille MARGUERITTE | LR and allies | 8,637 | 14.8 |
| Abdelkader BENRAMDANE | Far left | 900 | 1.5 |
| Yann DA CRUZ-LEGELEUX | RN and allies | 884 | 1.5 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Manche — 3ème circonscription RN and allies, toss-up
- Manche — 1ère circonscription LR and allies, safe seat
- Calvados — 5ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Manche — 2ème circonscription Centre (Ensemble), safe seat
- Ille-et-Vilaine — 7ème circonscription LR and allies, safe seat
- Calvados — 6ème circonscription Centre (Ensemble), toss-up
- Forecast updated