Manche — 2ème circonscription
Legislative constituency · Manche
Forecast of July 11, 2026
Our forecast gives the centrist bloc a 94% chance of winning, with an average lead of 1.0 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 12%.
Compared with the average
| RN and allies | Centre (Ensemble) | Left (NFP) | LR and allies | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manche — 2ème circonscription | 35.8% | 34.8% | 16.5% | 9.8% |
| Provincial averageManche | 36.2%−0.4 | 19.7%+15.0 | 21.7%−5.2 | 16.7%−6.9 |
| National averageFrance | 36.0%−0.2 | 17.0%+17.8 | 29.0%−12.5 | 12.2%−2.4 |
Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
Bertrand SORRE · Centre (Ensemble)
Previous election (2024)
The centrist bloc won by 0.0 points.
Our current projection: the centrist bloc ahead by 1.0 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bertrand SORRE Elected | Centre (Ensemble) | 26,555 | 39.9 |
| Marie-Françoise KURDZIEL | RN and allies | 21,186 | 31.8 |
| Patrick GRIMBERT | Left (NFP) | 11,529 | 17.3 |
| Julie BARENTON GUILLAS | LR and allies | 5,739 | 8.6 |
| Mai TRAN | Far left | 811 | 1.2 |
| Hervé RETAILLEAU | RN and allies | 721 | 1.1 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Ille-et-Vilaine — 6ème circonscription Centre (Ensemble), safe seat
- Manche — 1ère circonscription LR and allies, safe seat
- Ille-et-Vilaine — 2ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Ille-et-Vilaine — 7ème circonscription LR and allies, safe seat
- Manche — 3ème circonscription RN and allies, toss-up
- Ille-et-Vilaine — 5ème circonscription Centre (Ensemble), safe seat
- Forecast updated